Week 1 2024 mailbag part 2

Thank you for more great questions!

There were too many great questions so here’s part two, wanted to make sure I answered what I could so let’s get into it.

3) Reader David Gold asks:

1) “I think the biggest question I have is do you have any book/article recommendations that I can read to help better educate myself on the concepts you discuss in your articles.  I sometimes struggle to understand the terminology you use in your articles, so just looking to get a little smarter on my football knowledge.

2) I guess a second question is who are your favorite analysts that you pay attention to (based on your tweets, I'm guessing Kimes, Solak and Mays are on the list).”

Great questions and first and foremost, I will try and do a better job of 1) explaining certain terms and 2) describing them rather than just throwing jargon around. This is actually a problem with analysts, especially those who have spent so much time around the game. We get bogged down in coach-speak and football jargon and it’s no wonder it kind of turns people off.

Myself, personally, I used to be all about actual play terms and playbook concept names unique to each offensive system but there are universal terms used to describe concepts or families of concepts that everyone knows but there isn’t one good single database of concepts or terms and there really should be.

I learned by talking with coaches I know, coaching, getting my hands on hard to find resources like current NFL playbooks, etc. (which are easy to get now), and just reading the work of other analysts so I’ve been fortunate in that regard and try do the best I can explaining things but it doesn’t always work that way.

Anyways, resources I would recommend:

1. Chris Brown - Smart Football and The Art of Smart Football, books that can be found on his web page with links to Amazon. His website has a lot of the old articles from the mid 2010s and are GREAT resources. And his Grantland author page is still up with more.

2. Bobby Peters, both his books and his Alert the Post Substack. In my opinion, right now, no one breaks down NFL concepts for the general reader better than he does. His books are an indispensable resource for every football fan and analyst. He’s also a 49ers fans.

3. Other writers and analysts I enjoy and have learned a ton from: Kyle Posey, Jason Aponte, Andrew Pasquini (Niners Nation), Steven Ruiz (The Ringer), Ben Solak (ESPN), Mina Kimes (ESPN), Arif Hasan (Wide Left Post, beware, also writes about left wing politics so beware if that’s not your thing), Cody Alexander (Match Quarters, also has a ton of books out too), Ted Nguyen (The Athletic’s last remaining film analyst), Brandon Thorn (Trench Warfare on offensive line prospects and play), Coach Vass podcast Make Defense Great Again, Nate Tice (Yahoo Sports), and JP Acosta at SB Nation.

4. NFL Matchup on ESPN. This is the kind of content you get from them every Sunday from week 1 to the Super Bowl:

They come on super early Saturday morning with a replay early on Sunday morning so I usually DVR the show and watch it when I get up. You can also watch all of their videos on their Twitter page linked above.

Other 49ers writers: Jordan Elliott (NBC Sports Bay Area), Steph Sanchez (49 Karats podcast), Rob Stats Guerrera (Gold Standard Podcast).

Those should be good starting points for anyone looking to learn more. And all of these folks are on Twitter too.

4) Zach Grier on twitter asks “what players do you see improving this season?”

As weird as this is to say, because I have been hard on him since he took over starting last season, I think Colton McKivitz will improve enough this season that he isn’t a total liability in pass protection. I saw enough improvement in preseason despite some egregiously bad reps, that suggests he can take the next step and be an adequate pass protector.

In 2023, McKivitz was responsible for 35+% of the offensive line pressures per Pro Football Focus and had a 6.3% blown block rate in pass protection per Sports Info Solutions, the highest of any 49ers offensive line starter last season and nearly double the next highest player on the offensive line.

Those numbers drove the 49ers into the top 10 worst teams in blown block rate. They had a 3.49% blown block rate in pass protection last season, 10th in the NFL. If McKivitz has half as many blown blocks as he did, their rate drops under 3%, among the teams with the lowest blown block rate in the NFL. At the end of 2023 into the playoffs, McKivitz was marginally better and was decent in the super bowl.

In preseason, he showed signs of growth by being a patient blocker and waiting for pass rushers to declare their moves. He even occasionally used a “baiting” technique. The technique is used to get pass rushers to declare their moves early and allow the blocker to adjust accordingly. Pass rushers like to keep their hands and feet in sync as much as possible throughout the rep so any little movement from the blocker can throw this timing off if executed properly.

To “bait” a pass rusher, McKivitz begins by extending his outside hand. In each of the videos, where he uses this technique, this cues the pass rushers to start their hand movement and attack the blocker. You can see that each pass rusher tries to chop down his hand but misses, throwing off the timing of the rush and ending the rep for the defender. The nuance here will be critical in determining in determining whether or he can improve as a blocker. If he can remain consistent with it, then he should take a significant step forward.

5) Don’t be a Bozo, @Donut2922 on Twitter asks “why was Deebo the focal point in the Super Bowl when we had a lower EPA (per play) against man coverage vs zone coverage? Did Kyle overthink this?

Truthfully, I have no good answers for this other than to say that maybe Kyle thought he could find a few more matchups with some weaker interior defenders on the Chiefs defense. Kyle tends to put weaker defenders under the microscope and the Chiefs linebackers were the weakest unit on the defense.

It seemed like maybe finding those matchups could be easier with the Chiefs linebackers being the weakest link on that defense but eventually the Chiefs just stuck Trent McDuffie on Deebo for the majority of the game no matter where he lined up and the rest is history. Kyle was able to find some matchups on certain defenders but not consistently. Just one of those games.

6) Robert Matson on Twitter asks “I’m curious about the ‘Shanahan can’t play from behind’ narrative - is there anything significantly different schematically you can see that proves or disproves that? Does his playcalling actually change in negative game scripts as much as that narrative would suggest?

The narrative that Shanahan’s teams can’t play from behind ignores that nearly every team in the NFL struggles when playing from behind. Yes, he’s 1-30 when trailing going into the 4th quarter but that stat ignores a lot of context. For one thing, if my count is correct, 19 of those games were played by the rostered backup or backup level quarterbacks Hoyer, Mullens, Beathard, and Lance.

It also ignores the records of other high profile coaches. Since 2017 (last time I ran this filter on StatHead/Pro Football Reference), these are the coaching records of some of the most high profile coaches in the league after Shanahan:

Belichick: 4-42

Reid: 2-9

McVay: 3-22

In the Brady era in New England, so filtered for 2001 to 2019, the Patriots were just 5-34 over that time period when trailing by 8+ going into the 4th quarter.

That stat could also include games where the 49ers trailed by a certain score, say 3 or 6 points, while the opposing offense has the ball starting the 4th quarter, and scores to go up by 2 scores, making it a bit more difficult to mount a comeback. There’s a lot of factors that are ignored in that stat and I think journalists who post that know that none of their readers are going to take the time to look it up themselves and find the context to those individual games.

I found all of this data playing with filters on StatHead from Pro Football Reference but unfortunately you need to pay $16/month to use all of it’s features.

Knowing this, I think there’s not really much to the narrative that his play calling changes and I don’t think it’s all that important to spend too much time thinking about. Every team in a trailing situation is going to emphasize the passing game because it’s the easiest way to get quick yards and score points. Problem is, defenses can be more multiple when your offense is 1-dimensional if they know you’re going to pass every play when trailing.

I don’t really understand why the narrative exists but it’s not some indictment on Shanahan as a coach when teams generally lose more than they win when trailing by a certain amount of points at the start of the 4th quarter. You could argue he’s never really had a quarterback who could erase those deficits and carry the team, but you’d be ignoring how Brock went to a dark place, blacked out, and led comebacks in the playoffs.

7) Niner Gang 808 on Twitter asks: With the 49ers offense having such an efficient season last year, what are some of the things they can do to improve upon this year, to take it to another level? and can they take it up a notch?

It’ll be hard for an offense that scored 30+ points in 10 games last season, and another 3 games with 27+ (all wins) to meaningfully improve in any phase outside of individual improvements. That’s a pretty efficient offense already. That doesn’t mean that one player here or there can’t improve and contribute but it’s just not realistic to expect this team to be a 35-40 point per game team because of one additional player improvement.

But I think the area where they can most improve is in pass protection on the right side. For now it seems like Dominick Puni, the rookie from the University of Kansas, will start at right guard next to McKivitz, who I said above looks like he might be in line for improvement in his own way. If he improves and gives up less pressures, then Purdy and the offense can probably dig and find a few more points to stay a 12 or 13 win team. The key is consistency more than meaningful improvement. And the right side pass protection could use some.

8) Twitter user FredSed asks “What should we want to see from Purdy going from year 2 to 3, given that he's going to be looking for a big pay day and a long term contract next off season.”

I think the big thing for Purdy is consistency and taking less risks. The problem is quarterbacks with limited arm strength can’t afford to be taking less risks because they often have to throw with greater anticipation to get the ball to a spot. Purdy throws with excellent anticipation but that comes with putting the ball in harm’s way.

Everyone loved this throw from the preseason from Purdy, largely because it “looks like” other layered throws he made last season but it isn’t a layered throw. It’s a lucky throw into double coverage that he threw as he got hit because he didn’t see the tampa-2 linebacker deep dropping to his zone. The only reason it was completed is because it hung on him due being unable to follow through and Kittle made a spectacular grab. It was a risky throw and he was under pressure and didn’t make the best decision.

The other area he struggles with is pressure inside the pocket. If he can get outside off script, he can create. Inside the pocket, he cannot control the ball or get enough on the throw due to his arm strength.

His interception in the last preseason game illustrates this. McKivitz got beat right away and Purdy had pressure almost immediately. He hurried his throw and air mailed a slant pass to Deebo. To be fair, Deebo also didn’t win on this route but the ball was still high, tipped up, and intercepted. He often cannot get enough arm or follow through when the pocket gets condensed or “tall.”

9) Spencer Martin on twitter asks: “What position is this FO or Kyle the best at scouting? What position do they have trouble with? Is Kyle a top 5 coach? If Jed was to move on from Kyle, who would be tour HC pick.”

I think the front office is best at scouting nearly any position on defense as that is where they seem to be getting the most bang for their buck. Yes, Nick Bosa fell in their lap, but they’ve hit on at least 2 every year in the draft since 2017 and this year is potentially no exception with Renardo Green and Malik Mustapha. On offense they’ve had more misses than hits though arguably their three biggest draft hits are still on the team (Aiyuk, Deebo, Kittle), and that erases a lot of the misses.

Offense is also where they’ve had to spend the most capital because they’ve had so many draft misses there and didn’t have a first round pick until this year after the Trey Lance draft pick'.

Is Kyle a top 5 head coach? Easily. Right now the top 3 are Andy Reid, Kyle Shanahan, and Sean McVay.

The position they seem to have the most trouble scouting is the quarterback, if recent history isn’t ignored. First, they brought in Brian Hoyer and drafted CJ Beathard in the 3rd round after not scouting Patrick Mahomes. Then they traded for Jimmy Garoppolo and missed out on Kirk Cousins. Garoppolo was never that good and that five game win streak in 2017 fooled everyone. He wasn’t good in that stretch.

Then they missed out on trading for Matthew Stafford, whiffed on their scouting of Trey Lance, and if Brock Purdy is the guy everyone thinks he is, then they under scouted him as well, letting a non scout make the pick. We’ll see how this season goes for Purdy but for now he’s in line to be the next highest paid quarterback in the NFL. If he truly is that good, then they got lucky here after missing Lance.

If Jed was to move on from Shanahan, I would prefer Ben Johnson. I don’t know why this is even question but there were rumors early last week that the Shanahan might be on the hot seat was at least under scrutiny from the York family for losing two super bowls and that they’re losing patience. I don’t know how much i really buy that though.