To pay or not to pay Brock Purdy, that is the question
Part 1 of 4 looking at the why or the why not on paying Brock Purdy a top dollar contract this offseason.
Over the next 4 articles in the coming days, starting here, we’ll be examining all the reasons to pay or not to pay Brock Purdy. We’ll set up the scenario, starting with why they should pay him first, followed by the data and film on why.
Next we’ll look at why they shouldn’t pay him, followed by the film and data on why they shouldn’t, plus address some of the common tropes and narratives surrounding the 49ers offense next to him. So sit back, settle in, and lets see what we can uncover!
The majority of both film articles will be behind paywalls so I humbly request that you become a paid subscriber if you are not already. As always, I appreciate the support!
The San Francisco 49ers’ 2024 season ended in a hauntingly familiar fashion: a star quarterback sidelined by injury, key players on IR, and a fanbase left grappling with “what ifs” after a playoff miss. Rewind to 2020, and the parallels are uncanny.
That year, Jimmy Garoppolo played just six games due to ankle injuries, George Kittle missed eight games, and Nick Bosa’s ACL tear decimated the defense. The team stumbled to a 6-10 record, a far cry from their Super Bowl run the prior year.
In 2024, history didn’t repeat—it rhymed. Brock Purdy battled inconsistency amid injuries to Deebo Samuel (2 games inactive due to a calf injury and rib/wrist injury and exiting a 3rd early due to illness), Trent Williams (7 games, ankle injury and family emergency), and a defense that regressed from 1st in DVOA in 2023 to 13th. The result? A 6-11 record and a January spent watching the playoffs.
The cyclical nature of football reveals a harsh truth: even elite rosters are fragile. But unlike 2020, the 2024 collapse has sparked a more existential debate: “Is Brock Purdy part of the solution or a product of the system?”
Brock Purdy’s career is a Rorschach test for how we evaluate quarterbacks. Critics argue his success is tethered to Kyle Shanahan’s offensive scheme, Christian McCaffrey’s dual-threat dominance, numerous other all-pro players, and a defense that, until 2024, masked offensive flaws. Supporters counter with his league-leading metrics in 2023:
1st in QBR (78.1)
1st in EPA/play (+0.33)
4th in off-script completion rate (68.2%)
Yet 2024 told a different story. With McCaffrey’s absence for the majority of the season and, when he played, his efficiency dipping to 4.1 YPC, his lowest since 2020, and the defense allowing 23.1 PPG (up from 17.5 in 2023), Purdy’s flaws were magnified. His performance in “clutch” moments (final 5 minutes, score within 7 points) regressed:
2023: 72% completion, 6 TDs, 1 INT
2024**: 58% completion, 3 TDs, 3 INTs
Purdy’s supporters blame supporting cast erosion; detractors argue elite QBs elevate rosters regardless. Certainly much better quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, and Josh Allen all elevate the supporting cast in ways that Purdy could not and never will be able to do.
But the truth lies in the gray area. In 2023, the 49ers ended up 0-2 in the regular season with Purdy trying to lead a game winning drive, improving to 2-2 with two wins in important playoff games. In 2024, they were 1-6 in the same scenarios. The inconsistency raises questions: **Can Purdy transcend scheme, or is he merely its ideal operator?**
Purdy’s looming extension is a financial tightrope for the 49ers. The quarterback market resets annually, with recent deals for Dak Prescott ($60M/year), Jordan Love ($55M/year), Joe Burrow ($55M/year), Jared Goff ($53M/year), Justin Herbert ($52.5M), and Trevor Lawrence ($55M) establishing the floor for “franchise” QBs. ESPN’s Dan Graziano reported Purdy’s camp is targeting $55–60M annually, a figure that would consume ~20% of the 2025 salary cap.
The case for paying Purdy, a non film approach
There are three primary reasons why the 49ers should pay Brock:
Supply and Demand: There are only about 15-20 quarterbacks in the NFL league-wide who can reliably run an offense year after year. Purdy, despite flaws, is in that top-15.
Stability: Since 2017, the 49ers have started 12 QBs. Retaining Purdy ends the carousel.
Leverage: If San Francisco balks, another team (New Orleans? Titans?) could pay him, maybe not what he’s asking, but would still pay him and would leave the 49ers searching yet again. Shanahan and Lynch cannot survive that again unless they truly pull off a miracle and win a Super Bowl.
On that last point, Tim Kawakami of the San Francisco Standard surmised over the weekend that the 49ers were willing to take a hard line with Purdy, though not an “extreme hard line,” indicating the two sides might be further apart on what each views is a fair offer.
General Manager John Lynch faces a brutal calculus: Overpay for continuity or gamble on a cheaper QB and risk regression?
On the Monday after the regular season ended, Purdy said his hope was that his contract was done by spring mini camp as he did not want to miss any practice time, implying that he could still hold out and miss time:
“It's my first time going through this all. I don't really know what the next step is. But we'll see. Obviously, I'd like to get it done sooner rather than later, just so I can come back to work and get going with all the guys here. I want to get it done quick. Just so we can get back for Phase 1, get after it with our receivers and our team...I'm not the kind of guy that wants to have any kind of drama associated with anything.”
This echoes Patrick Mahomes’ 2020 extension talks, where he prioritized team harmony over drawn-out negotiations. But in the NFL, “no drama” often means “leverage quietly.” Purdy’s camp knows the 49ers have no viable alternative. Trey Lance is all but a lost cause, Jimmy Garoppolo might be a division foe, Sam Darnold is a free agent, and the 2025 QB draft class is weak.
Aaron Rodgers perhaps?
Doubtful Rodgers would even want to play for the 49ers or Shanahan at this point in his career when he’s taken pride in beating an organization that passed on him in 2005 after being a lifelong fan, and one he feels a level of animosity toward after losing to them in several key playoff games over the last 12 years.
If the 49ers lowball Purdy, his “drama-free” stance could shift. Recall Lamar Jackson’s 2022 holdout threat - a rarity for MVP-caliber QBs - which forced Baltimore’s hand. Purdy holds similar, if quieter, leverage.
Kyle Shanahan’s offense is a QB-incubator. Since 2017, it has revitalized the careers of Matt Ryan (2016 MVP), Jimmy Garoppolo (Super Bowl run), and even journeyman Nick Mullens (4,405 yards in 2020). But does the system diminish individual QB value?
Compare Purdy’s 2023 to Garoppolo’s 2019:
Purdy outperforms Garoppolo in efficiency, but both thrived on play-action and YAC-heavy designs. The difference? Purdy’s mobility extends plays, a trait Shanahan rarely had with Garoppolo. Still, skeptics argue Shanahan could replicate 80% of Purdy’s production with a mid-tier vet like Baker Mayfield.
Bill Belichick’s infamous mantra - “Better to move on a year early than a year late” - looms over this decision. The 49ers must ask: Is Purdy’s ceiling high enough to justify crippling the roster?
If Purdy’s 2024 struggles were purely due to supporting cast erosion, paying him $55M+ is defensible. But if his limitations (arm strength, improvisation) cap the team’s ceiling, San Francisco risks becoming the post-2015 Broncos: a talented roster dragged down by QB mediocrity. We’ll look at some of those issues but only the 49ers can decide if the risk of those limitations is worth it and can be worked around.
The 49ers’ choice will reverberate for years. Sign Purdy, and they commit to a QB whose peak may be “very good, not elite.” Let him walk, and they restart a cycle that’s haunted them since Steve Young’s retirement.
In many ways, Purdy embodies modern QB evaluation: a player whose statistical efficiency clashes with traditional “eye test” skepticism. His contract talks aren’t just about dollars—they’re a referendum on how franchises value intangibles versus system-driven production.
As negotiations unfold, one truth remains: Brock Purdy, Mr. Irrelevant turned lightning rod, has already forced the NFL to rethink what a quarterback can be. Now, he’ll test what a quarterback is worth.