Film room: Brock Purdy’s up and down night versus Minnesota

Brock hasn't looked super human in the last two games but it's not reason to panic...yet.

Author’s note 10/30/2023: I was behind on everything last week that I had to accomplish and had this mostly done until a few emergencies came up. Didn’t want to let it go to waste especially after the week 8 outcome, especially since the game ended for Brock nearly identically.

The 49ers dropped what shouldn’t have been as tough of a game for them to the Vikings 22-17. This is the second week in a row that they have managed just 17 points on offense though they appeared to move the ball a bit better on Monday night. But just like in week 6 versus the Browns, in week 7, multiple factors determined the outcome in this one, so much so that every mistake in succession made each preceding one worse by the minute.

On offense, fumbles, missed field goals, and interceptions stalled the offense again. On defense, too many big plays were given up, too many missed assignments and missed tackles were committed, and pressure and the blitz was not having any effect on Kirk Cousins' processing and throwing.

Specifically though, on offense, Brock Purdy had another below average game by his standards. Coming into week 7, he was already ranked 22nd in on-target throw rate. After week 7, his on-target throw rate fell to 25th on the season. Yes, he was concussed before he threw two interceptions but those stats are just box score stats that don’t tell the whole story. He was passing up throws and missing throws he was used to making prior to being concussed.

And we can’t say for certain that his concussion affected his ability to pass after that. He was not taken out of the game, was not examined, and the “certified athletic trainer,” a neuro-trauma spotter, watching and re-watching replays during the game for signs of head injuries, did not see any indication after that play that Purdy was concussed, nor did they deem the play to be worthy of calling a medical timeout to have him examined.

That does not mean it didn’t affect his ability to play, but it means we can’t really use it as a justification to excuse his decision-making. The 49ers and Kyle Shanahan weren’t even aware of any issue until sometime later the next day. And he’s been rapidly progressing through the concussion protocol since then. Shanahan, when asked if there was anything he saw on film that suggested he looked different after the hit, stated firmly, “Not really.”

Regardless, he does continue to show an ability to make difficult throws with some high level anticipation. And he was still overall their best player on offense for a majority of the game.

On the second drive of the game here, Shanahan dialed up what’s becoming a staple a passing concept in the offense, the post with a deep in-breaking (dig) route over the middle underneath the post. Working out of the gun, Purdy is getting pressure as soon as he hits the top of his drop to throw. He probably throws this a little earlier than he wanted but it’s a deep down the middle throw and has to be on time for Jennings to catch it.

To get it there on time, he has to throw with anticipation all while facing down the rush from the edges. The ball is halfway there as Jennings takes the first step out of his break toward the middle of the field and Purdy gets crushed between two defenders as he releases it.

Later in the second quarter, Purdy showed some good eye manipulation to get the defenders to move and open space for a throw to Brandon Aiyuk.

Aiyuk is in a condensed split here on the left as the single receiver with a trips formation to the offense’s right with two verticals and an underneath check-down. Aiyuk is running a skinny post. This looks more like a pass play designed for Aiyuk than it does a pure progression.

Purdy works the coverage by looking them off to his right just long enough to move the linebacker and safety out of the seam for Aiyuk. You can see how eye manipulation moves the second and third level defenders before he comes back with a strike down the seam.

After the Vikings started bracketing Aiyuk in the second half, Purdy came back and found Kittle for a nice 28 yard strike to Kittle on a deep crosser.

The play is a nice man coverage or single high safety coverage beater concept with Kittle running a deep crossing route while a flat-7 or smash concept occupies the strong side safety and corner. Versus man coverage, the crosser is open with Kittle matched up against a linebacker with a safety over the top that can’t close the angle from his depth. Purdy throws a pass to him in stride as his left tackle, Jaylon Moore, starting for Trent Williams, gets shoved into him just after he throws.

Miss opportunities

The 49ers so far are 0-2 in games decided by 1-score. Playing in close games consistently, for any team, is a clear indication of constantly living on the edge. It is unlikely that a team will emerge victorious in these situations regularly. Even small plays that may not seem significant when leading by two scores could greatly impact the outcome when trailing or leading by three, leading to a high degree of unpredictability.

The 49ers have found this out, where mistake after mistake compounds and takes away opportunities to build leads or come from behind. Purdy’s own role in this, like it or not, is greatly magnified and highlights his limitations.

On the missed field goal drive, Purdy had a pretty egregious turndown to Brandon Aiyuk because he likely did not like the overhang defender sitting just outside the throwing lane.

Aiyuk is running dig route here that comes wide open and it’s not at all clear why he did not rip this throw in that window when just a few plays earlier, in a play above, he threw with great anticipation over the middle field defender to Jennings. Instead, here, he ends up throwing a late pass that’s well out of reach of Kittle and exposing him to a bad hit.

In the fourth quarter, he really started to melt down as the Vikings started to bring just three or four rushers and suddenly it seemed like he was not seeing the field as well and bailing on clean pockets and missing throws including his two interceptions.

Earlier in the game in the early 2nd quarter, Purdy might have had a decent chance to hit an alert go route versus cloud coverage between the corner and safety for a touchdown. He passed it up. Here, got the look again that he wanted but sailed the pass out of bounds.

The Vikings are running a disguised creeper pressure that shows single high man coverage pre snap and rotates to Tampa-2 zone coverage post snap. The 49ers get the look they want to run this hole shot play to Jennings and Purdy confirms his post snap read.

The problem is he couldn’t layer the pass and sky mailed it out of bounds when he should have come off the read after Jennings got bumped off his release. He also didn’t really step into the throw with a hitch, causing it to sail widely out of bounds.

Here, before the first interception, is a play that shows the difference between the top quarterbacks widely considered to have the best arm talent in the league and Purdy. If fans want to consider him in that tier of quarterbacks or near the bottom of the top 10 or bottom top 10 (many are arguing in my mentions on twitter that he is top 10) then these are throws he has to make.

On his drop back, he drops his eyes to the rush when he should've stepped up and ripped the throw over the middle to Kittle on the dig route. On his drop back, he even confirms that there is no throw with essentially 5-over-3 to the trips. He starts to feel the pressure, drops his eyes, and tries to escape.

That’s going to happen to every quarterback. No big deal. You’d like him to rip the throw but if he doesn’t like it, its understandable. But here is where the limitations show up. He tries to heave a pass across his body falling away from the throw and he just doesn’t have the arm to get to Aiyuk, where it bounces on the turf before Aiyuk can scoop it.

Two interceptions

From a medical standpoint, we cannot conclude that the hit taken on the quarterback sneak affected his ability to play for the reasons I stated way above. Especially since he has numerous stretches of bad throws but ones he just didn’t end up paying for in games.

On his first one, he just threw it with bad footwork and threw it too far inside for Jennings to make a play on it. Shanahan stated this was the case after the game too.

On his second interception, he made a bad decision by trying to fit a pass into a window that wasn’t open and he panicked and threw it regardless. He was trying to make a play and it didn’t work.

Outlook

Purdy is cleared to play and that is a good thing as he progressed all the way through protocol. Darnold can be a spot starter but many do not want to see this and for Purdy to clear is a good sign that he’ll start. The 49ers need to enter the bye week with Purdy playing better than he currently has and that means putting these last two games in the rear view mirror and having a solid outing versus the Bengals. He’s more than capable of doing it too.